By now it's obvious that Central Florida has clearly had the more challenging schedule early on beating Penn State in Happy Valley and almost beating South Carolina at home. Louisville is the real deal, but we have seen them struggle in two games this year. The first against Kentucky where they allowed them to run for 5.23 yards per carry and watching that game you could see Kentucky was right in that game, but they lost their QB and turned the ball over 3 times. Against Rutgers they struggled too, but Rutgers handed them the win with 4 turnovers and now they face a Central Florida team that is +7 in turnover margin and have only lost the ball 5 times all year.
Central Florida has extra time to prepare for this game and it's every bit as big of a game for them to make a statement. The players and coaches have been staying quiet giving Louisville all the praise, but deep down I know they want to come out and make a state on Friday night so they can get some national respect themselves and have the lead on the BCS spot that the AAC is still entitled to. Central Florida is the best defense Louisville has faced all year and the best offense as they are perfectly balanced on both sides of the ball. They can run the ball, they cans top the run, they can pass the ball and they can stop the pass. All of Louisville's opponents had at least two flaws if not 3 or 4. The schedule has been terrible just take a look at the pass defenses they've faced 108th, 120th, 105th, 104th, and 92nd. Central Florida is ranked top 50 in many of the major pass defensive categories. Louisville's defense which has been so good has faced only one team in the top 75 in yards per carry average and only 1 team that can pass, but never a team that could do both efficiently and that's Central Florida.
So why 14.5 points? Friday night lights, home, Terry Bridgewater and Central Florida coming off a near loss vs. Memphis, but I think Memphis defense is for real and better than people are giving credit. Also I felt Central Florida was a bit hung over from their loss vs. South Carolina in a game that they absolutely had. People keep pointing to Louisville's big win last year in the bowl game, but I still think Florida had absolutely no interest in that game.
